2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Real_Wage_Labor_Productivity_and_Employment_Trends_in_South_Africa_A_Closer_Look_28页_1mb

Summary of Real Wage, Labor Productivity, and Employment Trends in South Africa: A Closer Look

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper by Nir Klein analyzes the relationship between real wage growth, labor productivity, and employment trends in South Africa from 2008Q4 to 2011Q2, and compares it with other emerging and advanced economies. The paper investigates how real wage developments have influenced employment, particularly during the recent financial crisis, and explores the long-term co-integrating relationship between real wages and labor productivity.

Main Points

• Impact of Real Wages on Employment:
  The paper finds that the rapid growth of real wages, which outpaced labor productivity in most sectors, played a significant role in suppressing employment creation during the financial crisis. The "excess real wage growth" had a negative and significant impact on overall and formal employment, with estimates suggesting that it accounted for at least 25% of the employment loss between 2008 and 2010.

  • In the informal sector, the impact of excess real wage growth was less negative or even positive, implying a substitution effect between formal and informal employment.

• Sectoral Analysis:

  • The majority of job losses occurred in the formal sector, particularly in manufacturing, trade, and construction.
  • Informal employment (excluding agriculture) slightly recovered by 2011Q2, reflecting a significant rebound in 2010 that partially offset the 2009 decline.
  • Labor productivity increased in most sectors, with the most significant gains in construction. However, real wage growth outpaced productivity growth in most sectors, except mining, which showed a stronger correlation.

• Panel VAR Analysis:

  • The impulse response functions (IRFs) from the panel VAR model indicate that a 1% increase in the excess real wage leads to a 25–30 basis point decline in employment within one quarter.
  • The IRFs also show a positive and two-way causal link between output growth and employment, but no significant impact of excess real wage on sectoral growth.

• Long-Run Relationship:

  • There is a long-term co-integrating relationship between labor productivity and real wages in South Africa.
  • The long-run elasticity of real wage growth to productivity growth is significantly below one, suggesting that real wage increases are not solely driven by productivity gains.
  • The adjustment period to deviations from equilibrium is estimated to be 10–12 quarters, indicating a slow response to changes in real wages and productivity.

• Cross-Country Comparison:

  • The link between real wage growth and labor productivity is weaker in South Africa compared to other emerging markets, even after controlling for labor market tightness indicators such as unemployment and labor absorption rates.
  • The paper also highlights that the co-integrating relationship between real wages and productivity is more pronounced in countries like Australia, the United States, and Malaysia.

Key Findings

• The excess real wage growth significantly contributed to job shedding in South Africa, particularly in the formal sector.
• The co-integrating link between real wages and labor productivity exists in the long run, but the short-term dynamics show persistent deviations from equilibrium.
• The informal sector appears to be more responsive to real wage changes, with some evidence suggesting that higher real wages could lead to a shift in employment from formal to informal sectors.
• Structural factors such as employment protection, labor market regulations, and wage bargaining frameworks weaken the link between real wages and productivity.
• The paper acknowledges limitations in data quality, especially due to the large informal sector and structural breaks in historical data, and conducts robustness tests to ensure the reliability of findings.

Conclusion

The study concludes that real wage growth has had a substantial negative impact on employment in South Africa, particularly during the financial crisis. The weak link between real wages and productivity, as well as the slow adjustment to equilibrium, suggests that wage developments are not fully aligned with productivity changes. The paper also emphasizes the importance of structural reforms and data accuracy in understanding the complex relationship between these variables.