2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Chad_2016_Article_IV_Consultation_74页_2mb

2016 Article IV Consultation with Chad Summary

Core Content

The 2016 Article IV Consultation with Chad, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), assessed the country's economic performance and outlook in the context of two major exogenous shocks: falling oil prices and heightened regional insecurity. The consultation concluded on July 22, 2016, with the Executive Board providing recommendations to address fiscal and structural challenges.

Main Points

Economic Context and Performance

• Macroeconomic Underperformance: Chad's macroeconomic outcomes have consistently underperformed potential due to the impact of low oil prices and regional insecurity.
• Oil Revenue Collapse: Oil revenues dropped to a fraction of their previous levels, with a 80% decline from 2013 to 2015. Recovery is expected to be gradual.
• Fiscal Deficit: Despite a large fiscal adjustment, the overall fiscal deficit remained high at 6.6% of non-oil GDP in 2015. Domestic arrears accumulated to 3.9% of non-oil GDP.
• GDP Growth: Economic activity slowed sharply, with GDP growth estimated at 1.8% in 2015, down from 6.9% in 2014. Non-oil GDP growth is expected to recover gradually to 4% per year by 2018.
• Inflation and Price Volatility: Inflation reached 7.6% in August 2015, later turning negative. Domestic price volatility remains a challenge.
• Credit and Liquidity Issues: Credit to the private sector slowed, and money supply contracted. The banking system faces vulnerabilities due to fiscal pressures and accumulated arrears.

Regional and Security Challenges

• Regional Insecurity: Security threats from groups like Boko Haram have disrupted cross-border trade and increased defense spending, leading to economic instability.
• Refugee Hosting: Chad hosts approximately 750,000 refugees and displaced persons, adding to economic strain.
• Security Impact: The deteriorating regional security situation is expected to continue affecting economic growth and fiscal stability.

Fiscal and Structural Adjustments

• Fiscal Adjustment: The government implemented a large fiscal adjustment, including a 30% reduction in domestically-financed spending.
• Contingency Planning: The Executive Board urged the authorities to develop a contingency plan for potential fiscal shortfalls and to limit spending to available resources.
• Non-Oil Revenue Mobilization: Efforts to increase non-oil revenue, reduce tax exemptions, and strengthen tax and customs administrations were recommended.
• Public Financial Management (PFM): Improving PFM, including transparency in oil revenue and efficient budget execution, was emphasized.

Policy Recommendations

• Fully-Financed Budget: Ensure a fully-financed 2016 budget and implement cash-based budget management to avoid new arrears.
• Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy: Develop a strategy for reducing the non-oil primary deficit and expanding fiscal space through non-oil revenue mobilization.
• Arrears Clearance: Implement a comprehensive strategy to clear domestic arrears and prevent further accumulation.
• Banking Sector Monitoring: Closely monitor the health of the banking system, which is vulnerable due to government exposure.
• Economic Diversification: Foster inclusive growth and diversify the economy by improving the business environment, promoting agriculture, and enhancing financial inclusion.

Institutional and Governance Issues

• Structural Reforms: Chad has made progress in implementing structural reforms, including PFM improvements and legislative changes.
• National Development Plan: The upcoming 2016–2020 National Development Plan is expected to focus on agriculture, human capital, governance, and social protection.

Key Documents

• Press Release: Summarized the Executive Board's findings and recommendations.
• Staff Report: Provided detailed analysis of economic developments, fiscal policy, and financial sector vulnerabilities.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis: Assessed the country's debt sustainability in light of oil price shocks and regional insecurity.
• Executive Director Statement: Highlighted the need for continued fiscal discipline and structural reforms.

Risks and Outlook

• Downside Risks: The outlook is challenging, with risks tilted to the downside due to internal and external vulnerabilities.
• Trade Balance: A gradual improvement in the trade balance is expected starting in 2017.
• External Financing: Foreign direct investment in the oil sector remains a key source of external financing.
• Regional Spillovers: Economic pressures in Chad could spill over to other CEMAC countries through security deterioration or currency union pressures.

Conclusion

The IMF emphasized the importance of continued fiscal adjustment, structural reforms, and transparency in oil revenue management to ensure long-term fiscal and financial stability. The country's economic recovery is expected to be slow and dependent on the gradual recovery of oil prices and improved regional security.