全球人工智能网络超级周期_由技术升级供应短缺驱动_76页_16mb

Summary of Global AI Networking Supercycle and Market Leaders

Core Content

The Anchor Report outlines the ongoing global AI networking supercycle, which is expected to continue through 2026F and potentially extend into 2027F. This growth is driven by technological upgrades such as Silicon Photonics (SiPh), Co-packaged Optics (CPO), Optical Circuit Switches (OCS), Active Electronic Cables (AEC), and Hollow Core Fiber (HCF), as well as supply shortages in optical laser chips and materials.

The report highlights the increased demand for high-speed networking solutions in AI data centers, particularly for scale-up, scale-out, and scale-across architectures. These architectures cater to different levels of AI computing expansion, with scale-up focusing on intra-rack interconnects, scale-out on rack/cluster networking, and scale-across on inter-data center communication.

Main Points and Key Insights

1. Market Leaders to Accumulate

• InnoLight (300308 CH): Dominates the high-end market and is expected to benefit significantly from the 1.6T transceiver and SiPh migration. Upgraded to Buy with a target price of 799.00.
• YOFC (6869 HK): Upgraded to Buy from Neutral due to strong AIDC business growth and stabilization in the telecom market.
• TFC (300394 CH): Likely to benefit from Nvidia's demand for high-end optical transceivers and as a potential CPO beneficiary.
• T&S (300570 CH): A core supplier to Corning, a key player in US AIDC, and is expected to benefit from scale-out and scale-across optical connections.

2. AI Networking Technology Roadmaps

• Scale-up:
  • NVLink and NVLink Fusion are central to Nvidia's strategy, aiming to provide low-latency, high-bandwidth interconnects.
  • UALink is an open protocol developed by the UALink Consortium, compatible with Ethernet, and is gaining traction in scale-up networks.
  • PCIe 7.0 is also evolving with optical connectivity enhancements to support long-distance transmission.
• Scale-out:
  • InfiniBand and Ethernet are the two main protocols.
  • UEC (Ultra Ethernet Consortium) is developing a protocol to compete with InfiniBand, emphasizing multipath transmission and microsecond latency.
• Scale-across:
  • DCI (Data Center Interconnect) is becoming a key solution for inter-data center communication, with coherent optical modules and hollow-core fibers playing a critical role.

3. Growth Projections

• 800G/1.6T transceiver shipments are projected to grow from 20mn/2.5mn units in 2025F to 43mn/20mn units in 2026F.
• Copper cables are expected to double in value over the next five years, reaching USD2.8bn by 2028E.
• SiPh transceivers are expected to gain 50-70% market share in 2026F.

4. Competitive Landscape

• Nvidia is a key player in scale-up and scale-out networks, with NVLink 6.0 and Spectrum-X switches.
• Google is leveraging optical interconnects and OCS to enhance its TPU performance, with TPU v7 (Ironwood) using 800G OSFP transceivers and 200G baud rate.
• Broadcom is pushing for CPO adoption with its Tomahawk 6 and Tomahawk Ultra chips, which support scale-up and scale-out.
• Whitebox switches are gaining popularity among global CSPs, which may negatively impact branded switch players' margins.

Key Segments and Analysis

• Optical transceivers and CPO are expected to be the main beneficiaries of the AI networking supercycle.
• Supply constraints in optical laser chips and materials are likely to drive up demand and support the growth of key players.
• Scale-up networks are facing challenges with copper's limited reach, pushing for optical solutions.
• Scale-out networks are adopting CPO and high-bandwidth switches to meet the demands of large AI clusters.
• Scale-across is becoming increasingly important with Nvidia's DCI strategy and long-distance optical modules.

Stocks for Action

Conclusion

The global AI networking supercycle is expected to continue through 2026F and into 2027F, driven by technological advancements and supply constraints. InnoLight, YOFC, TFC, and T&S are identified as key beneficiaries, with InnoLight leading the high-end transceiver market and YOFC showing strong AIDC demand. CPO migration is expected to accelerate in 2026, and optical interconnects will play a critical role in the scale-up, scale-out, and scale-across networks. The report emphasizes the importance of open standards, interoperability, and cost efficiency in the evolving AI networking landscape.