2025-05-19-Jefferies-美泰公司（MAT）_与管理层会面美国女孩旗舰店之旅_30_的中国关税似乎可控_7页_1mb

Summary of MET W/ MGMT: American Girl Flagship Tour, $30%$ China Tariffs Appear Manageable

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Mattel, Inc. (MAT) and its American Girl brand, based on a recent meeting with management and a tour of the American Girl flagship store in New York City. The report outlines the company's franchise strategy, the performance of the American Girl brand, and the impact of the US-China trade tariffs on its financial outlook.

Main Points

1. American Girl Flagship Store Tour

• Interactive and Personalized Experience: The store offers a unique shopping experience that includes a restaurant and a salon for girls and their dolls, enhancing customer engagement.
• Diverse Product Segments: The store showcases products for various age groups, including 18 months to four years, four to ten years, and adult collectors.
• Popular Collection: The "Truly Me" line allows girls to choose a doll that resembles them, with customizable outfits and accessories, which is a key driver of social media engagement and customer acquisition.
• Partnerships: The store highlights the success of the Disney Princess line, which is a licensed product line featuring dolls and accessories from Disney films.

2. American Girl Turnaround

• Performance: American Girl sales were comparable year-over-year in Q1, following several positive growth quarters in 2024.
• Strategic Focus: The brand is seen as a proof point of Mattel's broader franchise strategy, which involves leveraging brand strength across multiple platforms and product lines.

3. Impact of China Tariffs

• Tariff Rate: The current China tariff rate is at 30%, which is higher than the 20% rate that was used in MAT's original FY25 guidance.
• Management Outlook: Despite the increase, management seems optimistic about the recent deescalation of the US-China trade situation and believes the 30% rate is manageable.
• Financial Guidance: MAT reaffirmed its original FY25 guidance in March, even when the tariff rate was at 20%, which included:
  • CC net sales growth of 2-3% (consensus: 1.5%)
  • Operating income of $740-765M (consensus: $729M)
  • Adjusted EPS of $1.66-1.72 (consensus: $1.63)

4. Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: $21.00 (+4% from current price of $20.10)
• Market Cap: $6.8B
• 52-Week High-Low: $22.07 - $13.95
• Float and Average Daily Volume: 97.4% | 113.96 MM USD

Key Information

• Company Overview: Mattel owns a portfolio of global brands including Barbie, Fisher Price, Hot Wheels, American Girl, and Thomas & Friends. The company is organized into categories such as Dolls, Infant/Toddler/Preschool, Vehicles, and Action Figures, Building Sets, and Games.
• Valuation Methodology: Jefferies uses EPS and EBITDA multiples to value MAT shares, taking into account the company's cost-reduction initiatives and improved balance sheet.
• Risks: The report notes several risks, including competition, manufacturing verticalization, FX exposure, turnover, COGS variability, brand fatigue, and distribution challenges.
• Disclosure: The report includes detailed disclosures regarding potential conflicts of interest and regulatory considerations across various jurisdictions.

Analysts Involved

• Kylie Cohu
• Randal J. Konik
• Corey Tarlowe

Additional Information

• Franchise Picks: Jefferies Franchise Picks are based on fundamental analysis and include only Buy rated stocks.
• Investment Rating Explanation:
  • Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more
  • Hold: Expected total return of plus or minus 15%
  • Underperform: Expected total return of minus 10% or less
• Stop Loss Mechanism: Stocks with 120-day volatility in the bottom quartile of S&P stocks have a 15% stop loss; others have a 20% stop loss.

Conclusion

The document suggests that Mattel is effectively leveraging its brand strength and multi-platform strategy to drive growth, particularly through the American Girl brand. Despite the current 30% China tariff, management appears confident in the brand's performance and the company's ability to navigate the trade environment. The Buy rating and price target reflect a positive outlook on the company's future performance and strategic direction.