20180713-NATIXIS-Debt_overhang__5页_603kb

报告摘要

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document titled "Flash Economics" analyzes the concept of debt overhang in OECD countries following the 2008-2009 financial crisis. It explores whether households, companies, and governments in the OECD are experiencing a reduction in demand for goods and services due to their high debt levels.

Main Points

1. Definition of Debt Overhang

Debt overhang refers to a situation where over-indebted economic agents reduce their debt ratio by cutting spending and increasing savings.
This leads to a decline in demand for goods and services.

2. Debt Overhang in OECD Countries

a. Households

Household debt ratio has declined since 2009.
Housing investment has significantly dropped, indicating a reduction in demand.
Savings rate has not increased substantially, which suggests that households are not necessarily saving more but are spending less due to debt reduction efforts.

b. Companies

Corporate debt ratio has also declined since the 2008-2009 crisis.
Corporate investment has not significantly decreased, suggesting that companies are not reducing investment.
There is a distortion in income distribution, with a decline in wages and an increase in profitability.
This shift allows companies to self-finance their investments, reducing their debt levels and lowering household demand.

c. Governments

Primary fiscal deficit has decreased significantly since 2010, especially in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
The euro zone also shows a decline, but to a lesser extent.
This indicates that governments are reducing their debt through fiscal surpluses, but the debt overhang is most pronounced in the US, UK, and Japan.

Key Information

The OECD is considered as a whole, including the United States, the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan.
Chart 1A shows the decline in household and corporate debt since 2009.
Chart 2A and Chart 2B illustrate the household savings rate and housing investment, respectively.
Chart 3A displays corporate investment as a percentage of GDP.
Chart 3B shows the income distribution between wages and profits.
Chart 3C reflects the self-financing rate of companies.
Chart 4 and Chart 5A/B show the primary fiscal deficit/surplus for the OECD and individual countries.

Conclusion

There is debt overhang in OECD countries following the period of excessive borrowing before the 2008-2009 crisis.
Households are affected due to a decline in housing investment.
Companies are affected due to income distribution distortion and wage compression, which allows them to self-finance and reduce debt.
Governments are affected, particularly in the US, UK, and Japan, with a reduction in primary fiscal deficits.

Disclaimer

The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only.
It is strictly confidential and not for public distribution.
No personalized investment recommendation is made.
The statements, assumptions, and forecasts are based on public information and may change without notice.
Natixis is regulated in various jurisdictions, including the European Central Bank, ACPR, FCA, and BaFin.
The views expressed in the report are the personal views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis or its affiliates.