20181210-中国银河国际证券-Cement_demand_affected_by_unfavourable_weather_Exemptions_from_off-peak_production_a_potential_risk_12页_964kb

报告摘要

China/Hong Kong Cement Weekly Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the cement and coal markets in China and Hong Kong, focusing on price trends, production exemptions, and stock performance. It highlights the impact of weather conditions on demand, the role of environmental policies in production restrictions, and the financial performance of key cement companies.

Main Points

Cement Price Trends

The average cement price nationwide increased by 0.6% to RMB449/tonne from the previous week.
Zhejiang and Hainan saw an increase of RMB20-30/tonne.
Chongqing and Guizhou experienced a RMB20/tonne decrease.
Early December saw weakened cement demand due to snowy and rainy weather.
Cement inventory levels remained low due to off-peak production and environmental protection measures.
Downstream demand is expected to continue being affected by unfavorable weather, which could lead to a gradual inventory accumulation.

Coal Price Trends

The Bohai-Rim Steam Coal (Q5500K) comprehensive average price index remained flat at RMB571/tonne last week.
It decreased 0.87% on a year-on-year basis.

Off-Peak Production Exemptions

Some provinces (e.g., Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan) have introduced ultra-low emissions standards.
In Henan, cement producers that meet the standards are exempted from off-peak production.
Approximately 70%-80% of cement companies in Henan have met the standards.
Local governments may still suspend production in case of serious air pollution.
Other provinces may follow these policies, potentially increasing market supply.

Cement Stock Performance

Cement stocks under coverage dropped by 4.10% on average last week.
BBMG (2009.HK) was the best performer, rising by 0.79%.
CNBM (3323.HK) was the weakest performer, decreasing by 5.91% week-on-week.

Key Information

Analysts

Wong Chi Man
- Tel: (852) 39686317
- Email: cmwong@chinastock.com.hk
Mark Lau
- Tel: (852) 39686393
- Email: marklau@chinastock.com.hk

Equity Ratings

BUY: Share price is expected to increase by >20% within 12 months.
SELL: Share price is expected to decrease by >20% within 12 months.
HOLD: No clear catalyst, and downgraded from BUY pending clearer signal to reinstate BUY or further downgrade to SELL.

Figures

Figure 2: Valuation Table showing EPS Growth, PEG, ROE, and Dividend Yield.
Figure 3: Peer comparison of Market Cap, PER, PBR, and EV/EBITDA.
Figure 4–10: Regional cement price trends, 1-Year Relative Performance, and Clinker Capacity Breakdown.

Tables

Valuation Table (Figure 2)

Company	Ticker	EPS Growth 2018E (%)	EPS Growth 2019E (%)	CAGR (%)	PEG 2018E	ROE 2017 (%)	ROE 2018E (%)	ROE 2019E (%)	Dividend Yield 2017 (%)	Dividend Yield 2018E (%)	Dividend Yield 2019E (%)
Conch Cement	914 HK Equity	103.2	7.0	47.4	0.1	17.49	29.21	25.93	3.7	7.4	8.8
CNBM	3323 HK Equity	92.4	2.7	40.6	0.1	7.86	14.65	13.12	4.4	5.0	5.0
CR Cement	1313 HK Equity	119.9	3.1	50.5	0.1	12.67	23.84	20.48	8.2	8.6	8.6
BBMG	2009 HK Equity	43.0	9.0	24.9	0.2	5.97	7.53	7.56	3.7	3.9	3.9
Simple Average	-	89.6	5.4	40.8	0.1	11.00	18.81	16.77	6.0	6.6	6.6
Weighted Average	-	96.4	6.0	44.0	0.1	13.88	23.50	20.89	3.3	6.6	7.6

Clinker Capacity Breakdown (Figure 13)

Region	Anhui Conch 0914.HK	CNBM 3323.HK	CR Cement 1313.HK	Shanshui 0691.HK	BBMG 2009.HK	Asia Cement 0743.HK	WCC 2233.HK	Huaxin-Lafarge
East China	46.2%	35.1%	10.6%	49.6%	2.2%	42.0%	0.0%	0.0%
South Central China	20.0%	23.0%	8.2%	100.0%	5.0%	32.9%	5.3%	32.1%
North China	8.1%	15.3%	0.0%	100.0%	12.7%	0.0%	94.7%	0.0%
Northeast China	7.5%	26.6%	0.0%	100.0%	6.0%	0.0%	8.2%	0.0%
Northwest China	11.0%	20.5%	3.6%	2.8%	5.5%	1.2%	1.0%	2.8%
Grand Total	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Disclaimer

This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of a jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law.
The report is issued by Galaxy International Securities and not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
The report is not an offer or invitation to buy or sell any securities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The recipient should consult independent financial advisers before making investment decisions.

Conflict of Interest Disclosure

China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. may have financial interests in the companies reviewed.
Interests may equal or less than 1% of the market capitalization unless otherwise specified.
Directors, officers, and employees may be directors or officers of the companies mentioned.
Galaxy International Securities may participate in financing transactions, perform services, or have positions in the securities of the companies mentioned.
The research analyst is separate and independent from the investment banking function and has confidentiality procedures in place.

Copyright

No part of this material may be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited.