拯救生物多样性的代价_全球经济能否承受_半个地球_计划_32页_2mb

Can We Afford to Save Nature? Summary

Core Content

This document explores the economic implications of biodiversity loss and the potential benefits of the Half-Earth scenario, which proposes protecting 50% of the planet's land to restore ecosystems. It emphasizes the urgent need for action to prevent further ecological decline and highlights the role of financial systems in supporting biodiversity recovery.

Main Points

• Biodiversity is Critical for Economic Stability: Nature underpins more than half of global GDP. Continued biodiversity loss could slash global GDP by -2.3% by 2030, with developing economies facing deeper impacts (up to -10%). This loss is driven by deforestation, pollution, intensive agriculture, and climate change, which create both physical risks (e.g., reduced ecosystem services) and transition risks (e.g., compliance costs, stranded assets, and competitiveness shifts).

• The Half-Earth Scenario Offers a Path to Recovery: Protecting 50% of land could restore biodiversity to 2010 levels. However, this transition would involve adjustment costs, such as a -11% reduction in global cropland by 2050, leading to +15% food price increases and +24% global CPI inflation. Developing economies would face sharper GDP impacts than advanced markets (up to -19% vs. -4%). Despite these costs, they are far lower than the losses from unchecked biodiversity decline.

• Biodiversity Loss is Accelerating: The Living Planet Index (LPI) shows a -73% decline in wildlife populations since 1970. The Red List Index (RLI) has also fallen, indicating an increased risk of extinction. The Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) has declined from nearly 0.80 in 1970 to 0.76 today, with projections showing continued decline under high-emission scenarios and potential recovery under sustainability-focused pathways.

• Marine Ecosystems are Under Severe Threat: The marine LPI indicates a dramatic decline since 1970, with populations shrinking by more than half. Ocean acidification and plastic pollution are major contributors to this decline, affecting marine life and the services it provides. Overfishing further exacerbates the problem, with many Global South nations having less than 50% sustainable fishing practices.

• Economic and Financial Risks of Biodiversity Loss: Biodiversity loss can lead to measurable economic disruptions, including asset devaluation, increased credit defaults, and insurance losses. Transition risks arise from policy changes, market shifts, and consumer behavior, which can lead to stranded assets and revaluation of economic sectors.

• The Need for a Biodiversity Finance Gap Closure: The global finance gap for biodiversity is USD700bn annually, but current flows are only USD143bn, though private investment has increased significantly. Achieving the Kunming-Montreal targets (USD20bn by 2025, USD30bn by 2030) requires blended finance, policy incentives, and standardized biodiversity taxonomies.

• The Role of Financial Institutions: Insurers and investors play a pivotal role in biodiversity recovery. Insurers can underwrite restoration projects and offer ecosystem-based coverage, while investors can support biodiversity-themed funds and use tools like the Global Biodiversity Score to align investments with nature goals. Public programs such as the EU’s InvestEU and France’s SNCRR initiative are also contributing to this effort.

Key Information

• Biodiversity and Economic Health: Over half of global GDP is moderately or highly dependent on nature. Biodiversity loss could lead to significant economic disruptions, particularly in developing economies.

• Current Biodiversity Finance Flows: Only USD143bn are currently invested in biodiversity, though private investment has grown from USD9.4bn in 2020 to over USD100bn in 2024.

• Impact of the Half-Earth Scenario: By 2050, global cropland could shrink by 11%, leading to 15% higher food prices and 24% higher CPI inflation. Developing economies would face greater GDP impacts (up to -19%) than advanced markets (around -4%).

• Biodiversity Recovery Pathways: The SSP1-2.6 sustainability-focused scenario could lead to a recovery of the BII to around 0.78 by mid-century, while other scenarios predict continued decline.

• Solutions for Biodiversity Recovery: A combination of conservation, sustainable production, and responsible consumption is needed to achieve recovery. Sustainable intensification in agriculture and dietary shifts toward plant-rich diets are crucial. Global trade in certified sustainable commodities can reduce pressure on biodiversity hotspots.

• Importance of Financial Systems: Closing the biodiversity finance gap is essential. Financial institutions must expand capital flows, strengthen safeguards, and make biodiversity impact reporting standard.

Conclusion

The document underscores that biodiversity loss is a macro-financial threat and that financial systems have a critical role in supporting recovery. The Half-Earth scenario offers a bold but complex pathway to restore ecosystems, and the economic costs of inaction are far greater than the costs of transition. Collaboration between public and private sectors, along with policy incentives and financial innovation, is essential to bridge the biodiversity finance gap and ensure a sustainable future.