> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Can We Afford to Save Nature? Summary ## Core Content This document explores the economic implications of biodiversity loss and the potential benefits of the Half-Earth scenario, which proposes protecting 50% of the planet's land to restore ecosystems. It emphasizes the urgent need for action to prevent further ecological decline and highlights the role of financial systems in supporting biodiversity recovery. ## Main Points - **Biodiversity is Critical for Economic Stability**: Nature underpins more than half of global GDP. Continued biodiversity loss could slash global GDP by **-2.3%** by 2030, with **developing economies facing deeper impacts** (up to **-10%**). This loss is driven by deforestation, pollution, intensive agriculture, and climate change, which create both **physical risks** (e.g., reduced ecosystem services) and **transition risks** (e.g., compliance costs, stranded assets, and competitiveness shifts). - **The Half-Earth Scenario Offers a Path to Recovery**: Protecting 50% of land could restore biodiversity to 2010 levels. However, this transition would involve **adjustment costs**, such as a **-11%** reduction in global cropland by 2050, leading to **+15%** food price increases and **+24%** global CPI inflation. **Developing economies** would face **sharper GDP impacts** than advanced markets (up to **-19%** vs. **-4%**). Despite these costs, they are far lower than the losses from unchecked biodiversity decline. - **Biodiversity Loss is Accelerating**: The **Living Planet Index (LPI)** shows a **-73%** decline in wildlife populations since 1970. The **Red List Index (RLI)** has also fallen, indicating an increased risk of extinction. The **Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII)** has declined from nearly 0.80 in 1970 to **0.76** today, with projections showing continued decline under high-emission scenarios and potential recovery under sustainability-focused pathways. - **Marine Ecosystems are Under Severe Threat**: The **marine LPI** indicates a dramatic decline since 1970, with populations shrinking by more than half. **Ocean acidification** and **plastic pollution** are major contributors to this decline, affecting marine life and the services it provides. **Overfishing** further exacerbates the problem, with many Global South nations having less than 50% sustainable fishing practices. - **Economic and Financial Risks of Biodiversity Loss**: Biodiversity loss can lead to **measurable economic disruptions**, including asset devaluation, increased credit defaults, and insurance losses. **Transition risks** arise from policy changes, market shifts, and consumer behavior, which can lead to stranded assets and revaluation of economic sectors. - **The Need for a Biodiversity Finance Gap Closure**: The global finance gap for biodiversity is **USD700bn annually**, but current flows are only **USD143bn**, though private investment has increased significantly. **Achieving the Kunming-Montreal targets** (USD20bn by 2025, USD30bn by 2030) requires **blended finance, policy incentives, and standardized biodiversity taxonomies**. - **The Role of Financial Institutions**: Insurers and investors play a pivotal role in **biodiversity recovery**. Insurers can underwrite restoration projects and offer ecosystem-based coverage, while investors can support **biodiversity-themed funds** and use tools like the **Global Biodiversity Score** to align investments with nature goals. **Public programs** such as the EU’s **InvestEU** and France’s **SNCRR initiative** are also contributing to this effort. ## Key Information - **Biodiversity and Economic Health**: Over half of global GDP is moderately or highly dependent on nature. Biodiversity loss could lead to significant economic disruptions, particularly in **developing economies**. - **Current Biodiversity Finance Flows**: Only **USD143bn** are currently invested in biodiversity, though private investment has grown from **USD9.4bn in 2020 to over USD100bn in 2024**. - **Impact of the Half-Earth Scenario**: By 2050, **global cropland could shrink by 11%**, leading to **15% higher food prices** and **24% higher CPI inflation**. **Developing economies** would face **greater GDP impacts** (up to **-19%**) than **advanced markets** (around **-4%**). - **Biodiversity Recovery Pathways**: The **SSP1-2.6** sustainability-focused scenario could lead to a **recovery of the BII to around 0.78 by mid-century**, while other scenarios predict continued decline. - **Solutions for Biodiversity Recovery**: A combination of **conservation, sustainable production, and responsible consumption** is needed to achieve recovery. **Sustainable intensification** in agriculture and **dietary shifts** toward plant-rich diets are crucial. **Global trade in certified sustainable commodities** can reduce pressure on biodiversity hotspots. - **Importance of Financial Systems**: Closing the **biodiversity finance gap** is essential. Financial institutions must **expand capital flows**, **strengthen safeguards**, and **make biodiversity impact reporting standard**. ## Conclusion The document underscores that **biodiversity loss is a macro-financial threat** and that **financial systems have a critical role** in supporting recovery. The **Half-Earth scenario** offers a bold but complex pathway to restore ecosystems, and the **economic costs** of inaction are far greater than the costs of transition. **Collaboration between public and private sectors**, along with **policy incentives and financial innovation**, is essential to bridge the biodiversity finance gap and ensure a sustainable future.