2004年-世界发展银行全球_Romanias_Integration_into____________European_Markets__Implications_for_Sustainability_of_the____________Current_Export_Boom_40页_467kb

Summary of Romania's Integration into European Markets: Implications for Sustainability of the Current Export Boom

Core Content

This paper analyzes Romania's export performance since the collapse of central planning in 1989, focusing on the sustainability of its recent export boom despite relatively low foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and limited structural reforms. It highlights the evolution of Romania's foreign trade dynamics and the factors that have driven its export expansion, particularly in the context of its integration into European markets.

Main Points

• Export Performance Overview:

  • Romania's exports experienced a strong growth phase from 2000 to 2002, with an average annual growth rate of nearly 18%.
  • This growth was not confined to EU markets but also included non-EU (ROW) markets, indicating a more diversified export strategy.
  • The share of EU in Romania's total exports increased from 47.8% in 1993-95 to 62.3% in 2000-02, while ROW share remained relatively stable.

• Phases of Export Growth:

  • Phase 1 (1992-95): Export growth was mainly driven by reorientation toward the EU after the abolition of state monopoly and liberalization of trade policies.
  • Phase 2 (2000-02): This phase saw simultaneous growth in both EU and ROW exports, indicating broader market integration and improved competitiveness.

• Industrial Restructuring and Competitiveness:

  • Romania's export basket became more diversified, with significant growth in electrical machinery, steel and iron products, and automotive parts.
  • This reflects industrial restructuring and the increasing integration of Romanian firms into international production networks and global value chains.
  • Despite limited FDI inflows, these investments have played a role in improving export capacity, particularly in the footwear and clothing sectors.

• FDI and Export Growth:

  • FDI inflows, although not substantial, have contributed to export growth through technological spillovers and backward linkages.
  • The paper questions why such a small amount of FDI has led to significant export expansion, suggesting that the efficiency of FDI utilization and the presence of foreign-owned firms in export activities may be more important than the sheer volume of FDI.

• Sustainability Concerns:

  • The sustainability of Romania's export boom depends on maintaining macroeconomic stability, aligning wage increases with productivity growth, and improving the business climate to attract larger FDI inflows.
  • Romania faces increasing competition from low-wage countries such as Belarus, Ukraine, and Albania, which threatens its unskilled labor-intensive export competitiveness.
  • The paper emphasizes the need for continued investment in skilled labor and capital-intensive industries to maintain long-term export growth.

Key Information

• Trade Reorientation:

  • Romania shifted its export focus from East Asia and CIS countries to the EU and CEFTA.
  • The share of EU in total trade turnover increased from 45% in 1993 to 59% in 2002.

• Export Composition:

  • Clothing and Footwear: Consistently top performers, with their combined share in total exports doubling from 15% in 1993 to 30% in 2002.
  • Electrical Machinery: Emerged as a significant export sector, growing fivefold between 1993 and 2002 and accounting for 8% of total exports in 2002.
  • Industrial Raw Materials: Declined in share from 43% in 1989 to 12.8% in 1993, indicating a shift toward more processed goods.

• Comparative Performance:

  • Romania's share in EU external imports increased by 64% from 0.64% in 1999 to 1.05% in 2002.
  • It outperformed most other CEEC-10 countries in EU-oriented exports during 2000-02.

• Policy and Structural Factors:

  • The paper argues that the export boom is not primarily due to preferential access to EU markets or currency appreciation.
  • It highlights the importance of industrial restructuring, backward linkages, and FDI utilization in driving export performance.
  • The challenge lies in sustaining this growth by improving productivity, managing wage increases, and enhancing the investment climate.

Conclusion

Romania's current export boom is attributed to industrial restructuring and improved competitiveness in international markets, rather than unique external conditions or large FDI inflows. While the export composition has become more diversified, the sustainability of this performance hinges on maintaining macroeconomic stability, increasing productivity, and attracting more substantial FDI. The paper underscores the need for structural reforms and a supportive business environment to ensure long-term export growth and integration into global value chains.