2006年-世界发展银行全球_Thailands_Growth_Path___From_Recovery_to_Prosperity_66页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Thailand's Growth Path: From Recovery to Prosperity

Core Content

This paper examines Thailand's economic growth trajectory from 1960 to 2005, analyzing its performance, constraints, and the policies needed to sustain growth. It uses a new methodology (Rodrik 2004 and Hausmann et al 2005) to identify binding constraints to growth, focusing on five key areas: cost of finance, appropriability, infrastructure, geography, and skills. The study concludes that Thailand's challenge is to maintain a medium-term growth rate of 4 to 5 percent, which is lower than its pre-crisis performance.

Main Viewpoints

Growth Performance: Thailand has experienced significant economic growth over the past four and a half decades, with its GDP expanding 15-fold and per capita income rising six-fold. It ranks seventh globally in growth performance, surpassing many developing countries.
Growth Episodes: Five major growth episodes have been identified:
1. 1960s–1970s: Import-substitution policies with high growth (4.8%).
2. 1980s: Shift to export orientation, with growth rates dropping to 3.4% due to a sluggish global economy.
3. 1987–1996: A period of rapid recovery with growth rates reaching 8.1%, the second highest globally after China.
4. 1997–1998: The Asian crisis caused a sharp decline in growth to -6.6%.
5. 1999–2005: Recovery with an average growth rate of 4.2%, driven by exports and supportive macroeconomic policies.
Post-Crisis Slowdown: In 2005, Thailand's growth slowed, with GDP growth falling below expectations. This was attributed to factors like rising oil prices, a "hard landing" in China, and global current account imbalances.
Sectoral Shifts: Thailand has transitioned from an agriculture-based economy to one dominated by industry, particularly manufacturing. Services have also expanded but remain less dynamic.
Trade Integration: Thailand has become more integrated into regional and global trade, with exports and imports growing significantly. Trade with other East Asian countries has increased, and China has become a crucial trading partner.
Constraints to Growth: The paper argues that the main constraint to growth is the low social returns to investment, which stem from issues in infrastructure, geography, and skills. While the cost of finance and appropriability are not major constraints, they still play a role in the overall growth equation.

Key Information

Economic Growth

GDP Growth: From under $9 billion in 1960 to over $140 billion in 2003 (constant 2000 prices).
Per Capita Income: Rose from $332 in 1960 to $2276 in 2003, placing Thailand at 48th globally.
Growth Rates: Average annual per capita growth of 4.6%, higher than most developing countries.

Growth Episodes

Period	Growth Rate (%)	Notes
1960s–1970s	4.8	Import-substitution policies
1980s	3.4	Shift to export orientation
1987–1996	8.1	Export and investment boom
1997–1998	-6.6	Asian crisis impact
1999–2005	4.2	Recovery supported by exports

Trade and Exports

Export Share: Increased from 21% of GDP in 1980 to 65% in 2003.
East Asian Trade: Thailand's exports to other East Asian countries rose from 25% to 35% of total exports.
Import Composition: Three-fifths of all imports in 2003 came from East Asia.
China's Role: China has become a key market and trade partner, contributing to Thailand's export growth and providing low-cost manufacturing opportunities.

Sectoral Composition

Agriculture: Declined from 45% of GDP in the 1950s to just over 10% in 2004.
Industry: Became the largest sector in 2003, contributing 46% of GDP.
Services: Remained a significant part of the economy, with increasing focus on transportation and communication.

Infrastructure and Investment

Public Investment: Increased significantly, especially after the Asian crisis.
Private Sector Reluctance: Private investment has been less active, especially since the mid-1990s.
Infrastructure Quality: Thailand has a relatively strong infrastructure, but there are concerns about its future sustainability.

Skills and Education

Enrollment Growth: Thailand has improved enrollment rates, but there is a quality gap with leading countries.
Labor Market: A better-educated labor force has not translated into higher wage growth, suggesting issues with appropriability and returns to education.
Education Returns: Flat returns on education suggest that the quality of education may not be sufficient to drive higher productivity.

Conclusion

Growth Challenge: Thailand needs to maintain a growth rate of 4 to 5% in the medium term.
Policy Priorities: The government should focus on improving business infrastructure, trade integration, and skills development. Governance reforms are also critical.
Key Constraints: The main constraint is the low social returns to investment, particularly due to inadequate infrastructure, geographical limitations, and skill gaps.
Future Outlook: The paper emphasizes the need for forward-looking analysis and policy prioritization to ensure sustained growth.