2025-05-07-Jefferies-全球天气追踪2025年4月_33页_3mb

Global Weather Impact on Beverages Market

Key Findings

1. April 2025 Weather Overview

   • Europe & Africa: Favorable weather (Spain, UK, Uganda, Belgium)
   • Eastern & Western Europe: Sunny conditions boosted beer/soft drink demand.
   • N. America & APAC: Below-average weather due to rain and cold.
   • South America: Mixed conditions (Chile favorable, Brazil weaker).

2. Beer & Soft Drinks Performance

   • 2Q EU Growth Driver: Late Easter + favorable weather in E & W Europe.
   • Beer Sensitivity: Northern Hemisphere strongest in Q2 & Q3; Southern in Q1 & Q4.
   • Soft Drinks Critical: EU sales peak in Q2 & Q3.

3. Regional Weather Scores

   • Top Performers: UK (100), Uganda (100), Chile (100).
   • Worst Weather: Greece (0), scattered weaker points in APAC/Europe.

4. 2Q/EQ Weather Comparisons

   • Q2 Easy Comps: APAC, W Europe.
   • Tough Comps: S America, E Europe (tough).
   • Q3 Trend: N America softens comps; S America remains tough.

5. Company-Specific Impact

   • BVIC (Carlsberg): Strong exposure to UK/W Europe (high weather score).
   • Ambev: Brazil exposure (weak weather) leads to low scores.
   • Arca: Toughest comps in 2Q25; CCU/CCEP benefits from favorable weather.

6. Seasonal Forecast

   • E Europe: Persistent tough weather comps through 2025.
   • N America: Easiest comps in Q4 2025.

7. Weather Model & Methodology

   • Scores based on temperature, rainfall, sunshine vs prior year & 10-year avg.
   • Tailwind or headwind quantified via weighted-average weather scores.

Summary Insights

• Europe benefits from strong weather scores, boosting H1 2025 performance.
• Emerging markets face mixed conditions (e.g., S America weaker in Q3).
• Analyst emphasis on weather’s role in seasonal demand; BVIC/Ambev highlight risks/growth.