2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Iceland_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_59页_1mb

Iceland: 2017 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted the 2017 Article IV consultation with Iceland, assessing the country's economic developments, outlook, and policy priorities. The consultation highlighted the resilience of Iceland's economy, driven by strong tourism growth, private consumption, and investment, while also identifying risks and challenges that need careful management.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance

• GDP Growth: Real GDP growth reached 7.2% in 2016, and is projected at nearly 6% in 2017 before tapering to around 2.5% in the medium term.
• Drivers of Growth: Growth is primarily fueled by tourism, private consumption, and investment, not by leverage.
• Inflation: Inflation stood at 1.7% in May 2017, moderated by subdued import prices and currency appreciation.
• Current Account: Iceland's current account surplus is projected to shrink modestly over time, but remains strong due to tourism earnings and the wind-down of bank estates.

Policy Priorities

• Financial Sector Oversight: The IMF emphasized the need for strengthening financial sector oversight, particularly through improved microprudential regulation and targeted macroprudential measures.
• Capital Controls: Most capital controls have been removed, but the government is reviewing the "prerequisites of Iceland's monetary and currency policy."
• Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) has cut its policy rate by 100 basis points since July 2016, to 4.75%, in response to strong króna appreciation and subdued inflation.
• Fiscal Policy: The government is advised to maintain a tight fiscal stance, with strict expenditure control, and to be ready to tighten further if overheating risks emerge. Public sector pension reform has been welcomed.

Tourism and Economy

• Tourism Impact: Tourism has been a major driver of growth and króna appreciation. The sector is expected to continue growing, although risks of overheating are present.
• Tourism Strategy: The authorities are encouraged to formulate a sustainable tourism strategy with adequate resources and interagency coordination.

Structural Reforms

• Wage Bargaining: The wage bargaining framework is being reformed to support sustainable growth.
• Labor Market: Labor market tightening and wage increases are noted as potential risks, but flexible labor supply helps manage these pressures.

Capital Flow Management

• CFM Measures: Iceland's capital flow management measures (CFMs) have influenced the composition and size of capital inflows, shifting from debt to equity. The use of CFMs should remain temporary and transparent.
• Reserve Requirements: A 40% reserve requirement on selected debt inflows was introduced in 2016, with a 12-month holding period.

External Sector

• Exchange Rate: The króna has appreciated significantly, with the real effective exchange rate (REER) rising by 19% in 2016. This appreciation is seen as a response to the sustained tourism demand.
• Current Account Norm: The current account surplus is expected to adjust to a norm of around 8% of GDP, with a cyclically adjusted gap of +1.5%.
• Net External Position: Iceland has become a net external creditor due to the clearance of bank estates' external debts. The net international investment position is now positive for the first time since its measurement began.

Key Risks

• Overheating Risks: Potential risks of economic overheating include credit growth, real estate sector dynamics, and labor market tightness.
• Sustainability: While the economy is on a firmer footing, some bottlenecks in tourism infrastructure may be more lasting, requiring careful management.

Summary of Key Indicators

Conclusion

The IMF concluded that Iceland's economy is performing well, with high growth and low inflation. However, it emphasized the need for continued vigilance in managing credit growth, the real estate sector, and labor market dynamics. The government is advised to maintain tight fiscal and monetary policies, strengthen financial oversight, and develop a sustainable tourism strategy. The country's external position remains strong, and its appreciation of the króna is seen as a response to the sustained tourism boom.