> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 2026 IATA Sustainability and Economics Summary ## Core Content Overview This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global air transport industry's performance and challenges in the context of the 2026 energy crisis, which began with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis has led to a significant disruption in energy supply, impacting both oil and refined product markets, and has had far-reaching macroeconomic and geopolitical consequences. --- ## Main Takeaways - **Energy Shock**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused an unprecedented disruption in global energy supply, leading to a sharp drop in crude oil and refined product availability. - **Fuel Prices**: Jet fuel prices have doubled since late February, with crack spreads reaching record levels, underscoring the severity of the crisis. - **Economic Impact**: The energy shock has led to a slowdown in global GDP growth and rising inflation, with risks of stagflation, particularly in energy-importing economies. - **Passenger and Cargo Markets**: Passenger demand is adjusting to the crisis, with a forecasted growth of 2.1% in 2026. Air cargo growth is slowing due to capacity constraints and geopolitical disruptions. - **Profitability**: Despite industry revenue growth, net profits are expected to fall to USD 23 billion, with margins under pressure from high fuel costs and limited cost-cutting opportunities. - **Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF)**: SAF production remains low at 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, highlighting the need for a more systemic approach to the energy transition. --- ## Energy in Crisis ### The 2026 Energy Crisis: A Supply Shock without Historical Precedent - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February 2026 led to the largest supply disruption in the global oil market's history. - **Transit Statistics** (Table 1): - Crude oil: 19% - LPG: 19% - LNG: 18% - Refined products: 6% - **Crude Oil Supply Loss**: Approximately 10 million barrels per day, representing 13% of global demand. - **Jet Fuel Impact**: Jet fuel trade dropped by almost 30% between February and April 2026. Jet fuel prices doubled, with some regions like Singapore reaching USD 230 per barrel. - **Refinery Crisis**: Over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the Middle East was lost, leading to a double crisis in both crude and refined product supply. - **Regional Refining Capacity**: - Global refining capacity has increased by 16% over the past 20 years, but Europe's has declined by 20%. - Europe now imports 60% of its jet fuel, with over a third from the Middle East. - Asia and the Middle East dominate global jet fuel exports (60% of total). - **Refined Products Distribution** (Table 2): - Gasoline: 29% - Diesel/gasoil: 34% - Jet fuel: 8% - Naphtha: 8% - Other products: 20% - **Jet Fuel's Structural Vulnerability**: Jet fuel is a small part of the refined products mix (8%), making it less of a priority for refineries and more vulnerable to supply disruptions. --- ## Macro-Economic Fallout - **GDP Growth**: Expected to slow from 3% to 2.5% in 2026, with risks of further decline if the crisis persists into 2027. - **Inflation**: Likely to exceed 5%, with potential to rise above 6% if the crisis continues. - **Regional Impact** (Table 3): - **Hardest Hit**: Iran (-10.0+), Qatar (-6.0), Iraq (-6.0), Saudi Arabia (-3.0), GCC region (-2.5) - **Severely Hit**: The Philippines (-2.5), Japan (-1.0), South Korea (-1.0), UK (-1.0), Euro area (-1.0) - **Structural Risk**: Sub-Saharan Africa (High), Latin America & The Caribbeans (Moderate), Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan (Severe) - **Insulated or Benefiting**: Russia (Windfall), Brazil (Oil revenues, flex-fuel cars, hydro), Spain (Renewables and LNG infrastructure) - **Impact on Consumers**: Lower-income households face the steepest decline in purchasing power due to higher energy and food costs. - **Defense Spending**: Increased significantly in 2025 and is expected to rise further in 2026, with NATO aiming to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. - **Financial Markets**: Complacency persists despite the crisis, with US equity indices near record highs. However, risks of a financial downturn remain, especially if the energy crisis continues. - **USD Depreciation**: The US dollar has weakened, affecting the cost of USD-denominated fuel and debt for non-USD users. The risk of a dollar exodus is real if this trend continues. - **Elections**: Over 40 countries are holding elections in 2026, which could influence policy responses to the crisis. --- ## Outlook for Global Air Transport - **Challenges**: - Airlines face a doubling of fuel costs and potential physical shortages in key markets. - A deteriorated macroeconomic environment is affecting demand. - Geopolitical disruptions are altering network structures and long-haul connectivity. - **Strategic Adjustments**: - Airlines must balance capacity reductions to conserve fuel with maintaining revenue-generating flights to cover fixed costs. - High fleet utilization rates from the pandemic have limited further cost optimization. - **Regional Impacts**: - The Middle East is experiencing a deep contraction in passenger traffic due to airspace restrictions. - Africa and Asia Pacific are seeing growth due to rerouting. - Europe and the US West Coast are particularly affected by high fuel prices and limited supply. --- ## Conclusion The 2026 energy crisis has exposed the fragility of the global energy system and has significantly impacted the airline industry. The crisis has led to higher fuel costs, disrupted supply chains, and slowed global economic growth. While some regions are more resilient due to energy independence or strategic investments, others face severe economic and social consequences. The need for a systemic energy transition has become more urgent, emphasizing the importance of developing alternative energy sources to ensure long-term energy security and economic stability.