2014年-世界发展银行全球_Harnessing_African_Natural_Gas___A_New_Opportunity_for_Africas_Energy_Agenda__89页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Harnessing African Natural Gas: A New Opportunity for Africa's Energy Agenda?"

Core Content

This report explores the potential of natural gas to address Sub-Saharan Africa's persistent power shortages and its role in the continent's energy development. It analyzes the resource base, pricing frameworks, transportation challenges, and the trade-offs between LNG exports and domestic gas supply. The study also evaluates the opportunities and challenges for both large- and small-resource countries in the context of gas-to-power development.

Main Points and Key Information

Natural Gas Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa

Total Discovered Resources: Estimated at 359 TCF.
Proved Reserves: 136 TCF (up to 169 TCF when probable reserves are included).
Contingent Resources: 190 TCF, with Mozambique and Tanzania accounting for 62% of these.
Nigeria holds 81% of proved reserves and is the largest gas producer.
LNG Exporters: Nigeria, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea account for 92% of proved reserves.
Potential Resource Base: Nigeria has 125 TCF of discovered but undeveloped gas, sufficient to generate 50 GW of power for 50 years.
Shale Gas Potential: South Africa has identified 390 TCF of potential shale gas resources, though development is long-term due to technical, economic, and environmental challenges.

Gas Pricing and Commercialization

Upstream Price Benchmarks:
- Minimum Wholesale Price: Reflects the sum of capital and operating costs, royalties, taxes, and a minimum after-tax rate of return (15%).
- LNG Netback Price: The delivered price in the destination market minus liquefaction and shipping costs.
Price Differences:
- Nigeria: Minimum wholesale price is $2.0, while LNG netback is $4–6.
- Mozambique: Minimum wholesale price is $2.5, LNG netback is $6–8.
- Tanzania: Minimum wholesale price is $3.4, LNG netback is $6–8.
- Small-resource countries: Minimum wholesale price is $6–10, LNG netback is not applicable.
Domestic vs. Export Priorities:
- Nigeria: Domestic gas prices are too low to incentivize investment; needs price reforms to support both domestic and export markets.
- Mozambique: Can afford to allocate gas to domestic supply without compromising exports.
- Tanzania: Domestic gas sales may substitute for LNG, making them less economically viable.

Gas-to-Power Competitiveness

Nigeria: Gas-fired power is the lowest-cost thermal generation option, with levelized costs of $41–68 per MWh. It can displace diesel at 70%+ cost savings.
Mozambique: Hydropower is the cheapest option at $21–23 per MWh, but gas can be competitive at $5.70 per MMBTU (baseload) and $68 per MWh at full LNG netback. However, high transmission costs and small domestic market may limit its role.
Tanzania: Gas is more competitive than coal at $89 per MWh (LNG netback) and has a shorter development timeline (12–18 months vs. 4–5 years for coal and hydropower).

Gas Transportation Challenges

Pipeline Infrastructure: Almost non-existent in Sub-Saharan Africa, except in Nigeria and a few small projects.
Transportation Costs:
- Nigeria inland route: $3–5 per MMBTU.
- WAGP expansion: $7–10 per MMBTU for Ghana, $9–11 per MMBTU for Côte d'Ivoire.
- Mozambique to South Africa: $3 per MMBTU, leading to delivered prices of $6–11 per MMBTU.
- Tanzania to Kenya: $2–3 per MMBTU, but delivered prices could reach $9–10 per MMBTU.
- Tanzania inland route: High transportation costs due to low off-take volumes.
Economies of Scale: The main challenge for pipeline development, as most markets are too small and distances too great to justify investment.

Importing Country Perspectives

South Africa:
- Has imposed a CO₂ emissions cap, creating an opportunity for gas to replace coal.
- Gas from Mozambique could be competitive at $7 per MMBTU (delivered cost), with a wellhead price of $4 per MMBTU.
- A gas master plan is underway to shape supply strategy.
Kenya:
- Imported gas from Tanzania would be less competitive than geothermal or hydropower unless prices are near the minimum wholesale price.
- Likely to prioritize LNG imports due to the unreliability of WAGP.
Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire:
- Both are turning to gas due to fully exploited hydropower and no viable coal options.
- Gas supply will come from Nigeria and LNG imports.
- LNG import projects are challenging to finance and may not offer significant savings over current liquid fuels.

Opportunities and Challenges for Smaller-Resource Countries

Ghana, Namibia, Côte d'Ivoire: Gas resources could meet 50+ years of electricity demand.
Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Mauritania: Gas could meet 100+ years of electricity demand.
Challenges:
- Lack of scale in upstream and midstream development.
- Regional cooperation may be necessary to realize gas-to-power potential.
- High investment requirements and limited domestic demand may hinder development unless supported by regional projects.

Conclusions

The resource base of Sub-Saharan Africa is vast, but commercialization is limited by infrastructure gaps and scale issues.
LNG exports offer significant economic opportunities but come with trade-offs between domestic supply and export.
Gas-to-power is economically viable in large-resource countries, but transportation costs and market size remain critical constraints.
Regional pipeline projects are needed to make gas a more attractive option, but economies of scale are difficult to achieve.
Smaller-resource countries may benefit from regional collaboration and LNG imports, but face high development costs and uncertain market demand.

Acknowledgments

The report was prepared by David Santley, Robert Schlotterer, and Anton Eberhard.
Insights were provided by the World Bank's Africa Energy Department and Sustainable Energy Department.
ECA provided background papers on gas resources, pricing, and transportation.
ESMAP offered financial and technical support.