2025-06-04-Jefferies-优步（UBER）_开拓新路径；上调市场扩张机会的预期_14页_222kb

Uber Equity Research Summary

Report Overview
This report provides an equity research analysis of Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) published on June 4, 2025, highlighting its market expansion opportunities and potential for growth. Despite a temporary dip in valuation due to Tesla's impending robotaxi launch, the company maintains a BUY rating with a price target of $100, indicating strong medium-term prospects.

Key Ratings and Target

• Current rating: BUY, with a 12-month price target of $100 (up from prior estimates), implying an 18x 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple.
• Justification: Reflects higher growth projections from market penetration, but accounts for near-term risks from Tesla's robotaxi rollout in Austin starting June 12, 2025.
• Long-term view: Projects 15%+ compound annual growth in Mobility and Delivery, with EBITDA margin expansion to over 5% of bookings, supporting a potential $150 PT under an optimistic scenario.

Market Expansion Focus

• Uber prioritizes expansion into underpenetrated markets, particularly Tier 2+ markets, which represent only ~20% of total trips in Mobility.
• These markets could contribute ~4% annual growth by 2030 as penetration rates mirror Tier 1 levels, adding "millions of incremental trips."
• Strategies include driver supply enhancements, alternative supply (e.g., taxis), and leveraging autonomous vehicles (AV) for low-cost mobility solutions. In Delivery, focus is on merchant selection and cross-platform engagement.

Financial Performance

• Revenue and EBITDA expected to grow significantly: Revenue CAGR of ~16% through 2026, EBITDA increase to ~$11.5B, driven by higher margins and bookings growth.
• Tier analysis shows Tier 2+ markets could boost annual growth by 21% CAGR over 5+ years, offsetting slower Tier 1 growth.
• Financial metrics: Improved operating margins and incremental margins support profitability, with adjusted EBITDA expected to reach ~$3.3B by 2026.

Key Risks

• Near-term risks: Potential negative headlines from Tesla's robotaxi competition, regulatory challenges in AV deployment, and macroeconomic factors.
• Long-term uncertainties: High competition, regulatory headwinds (e.g., gig economy policies), and dependency on AV adoption.

Conclusion
The analysis underscores Uber's dominant scale and network effects as key drivers for sustained growth, with Tier 2+ market expansion and AV integration being pivotal. Despite risks, the valuation remains competitive, reflecting a discount to peers like DoorDash.

John Colantuoni, Equity Analyst, etc.