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Summary of HSBC Report on Smart Glasses Market and Investment Outlook

Core Content

This report by HSBC outlines the evolving landscape of the smart glasses market, focusing on the potential for AI-powered devices to displace smartphones in the long term. It evaluates the current state of the market, the competitive dynamics, and the financial implications for key players like Meta Platforms, EssilorLuxottica (ESLX), and Apple.

Main Points

1. Smart Glasses and AI Integration

• AI-powered Large Language Models (LLMs) enable real-time voice conversation and contextual information retrieval, making smart glasses a more convenient alternative to smartphones.
• The report suggests that while smartphones may not be fully replaced, they could be progressively displaced by smart glasses, especially in advanced economies.

2. Market Penetration Projections

• Base Case: 25% penetration by 2040, translating to 289 million users.
• Bull Case: 50% penetration by 2040, predicting 579 million users and a TAM of USD401bn.
• Bear Case: 5% penetration, resulting in 58 million users and a TAM of USD36bn.

3. Total Addressable Market (TAM) Forecast

• HSBC has increased its 2040e TAM forecast for smart glasses to cUSD200bn (up 33% from the previous estimate), driven by the success of Meta's new range of smart glasses and growing competition.
• The TAM for 2030e is now USD178bn under the bull case and USD52bn under the base case.

4. Competitive Landscape

• Meta and ESLX are leading the market, with ESLX holding a c70% market share in 2025e. However, competition is growing, with companies like Alibaba, Xiaomi, XReal, and Google entering the space.
• The report highlights that while Chinese players like Xiaomi and Alibaba focus on regional markets, Meta and ESLX are positioned as global leaders.

5. Investment Rationale and Ratings

• ESLX is upgraded to Buy from Hold, with a target price of EUR340 (up 13% from EUR300). This reflects improved EBIT estimates and DCF rollover.
• Meta retains a Buy rating, with a target price of USD905, implying a 41% upside.
• Apple remains on Hold, as it is seen as a hedge against smartphone displacement with its potential smart glasses development.

6. Product Development and Market Response

• The Ray-Ban Meta Display has seen strong demand, leading to inventory constraints and delayed launches in certain regions.
• XReal and Alibaba have introduced new models, such as the S1 and Quark AI Glasses, respectively, with features like dual-lens displays and AI integration.
• Apple is shifting resources to develop its own smart glasses, expected to launch in 2027-2028.
• Google is re-entering the market through Android XR, partnering with Snap and Samsung to develop smart glasses.

7. Ergonomics and Tech Stack Analysis

• Smart glasses offer better ergonomics and hands-free functionality compared to smartphones, with features like gesture control and spatial AR.
• However, they still face challenges such as battery life, screen resolution, and privacy concerns, though advancements in waveguide technology are improving light leakage issues.

8. ESLX's Strategic Position

• ESLX's vertically integrated model and strong brand portfolio (e.g., Ray-Ban, Oakley) give it a competitive edge.
• The company's production capacity is expected to increase, with potential sales of 15m units in 2026e (up from 9m units previously).
• ESLX's partnership with Meta is not exclusive, allowing it to collaborate with other tech companies and expand its offerings.

Key Information

• Smart glasses are seen as a viable alternative to smartphones, especially with AI integration.
• Meta and ESLX are leading the market, but competition is intensifying.
• HSBC has revised its TAM forecasts upwards due to increased demand and better tech capabilities.
• Investment ratings have been updated, with ESLX upgraded to Buy and Meta retained as Buy, while Apple remains on Hold.
• The report acknowledges the challenges of smart glasses adoption, including health and social concerns, but believes the market will grow significantly in the medium to long term.

Table: HSBC Ratings and Target Prices

Company	Ticker	Old Rating	New Rating	Old TP	New TP	CCY	Latest Price	Upside/Downside
Meta Platforms	META US	Buy	Buy	905.00	905.00	USD	641.97	+41.0%
EssilorLuxottica	ESLX FP	Hold	Buy	300.00	340.00	EUR	276.00	+23.2%
Apple	AAPL US	Hold	Hold	250.00	250.00	USD	260.25	-3.9%

Table: Smart Glasses TAM Forecasts (USDbn)

Year	Bull Case	Base Case	Bear Case
2025e	18	3	2
2026e	56	12	2
2027e	81	19	4
2028e	110	26	6
2029e	142	36	8
2030e	178	52	10
2035e	343	144	22
2040e	401	201	36