2025-05-20-Bernstein-Core_Scientific公司（CORZ）_Core_Scientific_（CORZ）该股票现在会跟随CoreWeave上涨吗_19页_761kb

Core Scientific Inc (CORZ) Analysis Summary

Date: May 20, 2025
Analyst: Gautam Chhugani
Rating: Outperform
Price Target: $17.00
Current Price: $10.85

Key Highlights

• The rating is Outperform with a price target of $17.00, projecting a 57% upside from the current price.
• CORZ operates two primary business segments: Bitcoin mining and AI data center services, expected to contribute approximately 57% and 43% to total enterprise value (EV), respectively.

Deal with CoreWeave

• CORZ has secured a $10.2B revenue contract with CoreWeave over 12 years, including potential extensions, delivering ~590MW of capacity to one of the largest Blackwell GB200 clusters.
• This contract contributes ~$1.45Mn/MW annual revenue. Cost-sharing and capex arrangements are structured favorably for CORZ.
• Significant milestones include delivering ~250MW by 2025E and the full ~590MW by early 2027E.

Financial Health

• Balance sheet de-levered through refinancing and restructuring debt, with low-cost convertible debt and strong liquidity.
• As of Q1 2025, cash, cash equivalents, and Bitcoin holdings total $779Mn, supporting organic and inorganic growth.
• 48MW capacity delivered in May 2025, with ongoing site development for new clients.

Valuation Approach

• Uses Sum of the Parts (SOTP) methodology, evaluating the Bitcoin mining business with DCF and the AI segment with a 10x 2028E FCFF multiple.
• Current market cap is $3.23B, with an EV/sales ratio of 6.1x.

Investment Risks

• Bitcoin mining operations face regulatory risks (e.g., from Texas).
• AI business could underperform if execution risks materialize or capex delays occur.

Growth Outlook

• Revenue projected to grow at ~30% CAGR through 2029E, driven by inorganic acquisitions and expanding contracts.
• Target to reach ~1.3GW of critical IT load by 2027E.

Financial Forecast Summary

• EV/EBITDA: 37.9x (2024A), 13.9x (2025E), 6.1x (2026E).
• Revenue: $511Mn (2024A), $590Mn (2025E), $1,056Mn (2026E).
• Profit Margins: Expected 75-80% EBIT margins from CoreWeave deal.

Conclusion

CORZ is positioned to benefit from accelerating AI data center demand, aided by its strong relationship with CoreWeave. However, political and market risks surrounding Bitcoin mining may cap near-term investor confidence.