20260313-招银国际-理想汽车-W-02015.HK-Await_redesigned_L9_amid_lingering_challenges_5页_816kb

Li Auto Inc. (LI US/2015 HK) Summary

Core Content

Li Auto Inc. is a Chinese automaker that has faced various challenges in its journey, particularly in the context of transitioning into an AI device company. The company has recently reported its 4Q25 earnings, which slightly beat expectations, with a gross profit margin (GPM) increase to 17.8% and a net profit of RMB7mn. However, the outlook for its redesigned L9 model remains uncertain due to fierce competition in the large SUV market and potential impacts from charging technology developments.

The company has revised its FY26E sales volume target downward from 0.5mn units to approximately 0.49mn units (+20% YoY), and expects a GPM of around 5% in 1Q26E. Despite these revisions, the estimated net profit for FY26E is RMB3.4bn, unchanged from prior forecasts. The FY27E net profit is revised up by 1% to RMB7.7bn, assuming a sales volume of 0.59mn units and a GPM of 18.2%.

Key Financial Metrics

Main Points

• 4Q25 Performance: Revenue slightly exceeded expectations, with a GPM increase of 1.5ppts to 17.8%. Operating loss was RMB443mn, but net profit reached RMB7mn.
• Redesigned L9: The company is awaiting more details on the redesigned L9, which is a key model for the year. The L9 may pave the way for the new-generation L8 and L7, but its ability to differentiate in a competitive market is uncertain.
• FY26E Outlook: Sales volume target revised down to 0.49mn units, and GPM expected at 5% in 1Q26E. Despite these, net profit is estimated at RMB3.4bn.
• FY27E Forecast: Net profit revised up by 1% to RMB7.7bn, assuming a sales volume of 0.59mn units and a GPM of 18.2%.
• Valuation: The company maintains a HOLD rating with a target price of US$18.00 for ADS and HK$70.00 for H-shares. The valuation is based on 17x FY27E P/E and 39x FY26E P/E.
• Key Risks: Sales volume and GPM may differ from expectations, and sector re-rating or de-rating could impact the target price.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue Growth: Revenue grew significantly in FY23A (173.5%) and FY24A (16.6%), but declined in FY25A (-22.3%).
• Profitability: Net profit declined in FY25A (-86.0%), but is expected to grow in FY26E (198.0%) and FY27E (131.1%).
• Operating Profit: Operating profit was negative in FY22A and FY23A, but improved in FY24A and is expected to be positive in FY26E and FY27E.
• Cash Flow: Net cash from operations has fluctuated, with a significant increase in FY23A (RMB50,694mn) and a decrease in FY25A (RMB2,135mn).

Stock Performance

• 1-month: LI US -3.4%, 2015 HK -3.0%
• 3-month: LI US +4.4%, 2015 HK +3.8%
• 6-month: LI US -27.2%, 2015 HK -24.8%

Key Risks

• Sales Volume and GPM: Deviations from forecasted sales volume and GPM could impact profitability.
• Sector Valuation: A re-rating or de-rating of the sector may affect the company's valuation.
• Competition: The large SUV market is highly competitive, and the redesigned L9's success is uncertain.

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views and that no part of his or her compensation was directly or indirectly related to the specific views in the report. The analyst also confirms that he or she did not trade in the stock(s) covered in this report within 30 days prior to its release, and will not do so for 3 business days after its release.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months
• NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Important Disclosures

• There are risks involved in transacting in any securities.
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• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• The value of investments are uncertain and may fluctuate.
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