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Hino Motors and Fuso Integration Analysis

Financials & Capital Raise

• Balance Sheet Issues: Hino faces financial challenges resolved by ¥200bn equity raise and ¥78.6bn preferred share issuance.
• Partnership: Receives ¥121.4bn common shares and Hamura plant sale to Toyota for integration.
• Dilution: Issuance leads to common stock dilution of c47% (78% incl. class shares).

Integration & Swap Ratio

• Ratio: 1 Hino share : 1.7 Fuso shares; considered lower-than-expected value for Hino by Citigroup.
• Structure: Listed holding company established (Toyota: ~19.9% stake).
• Timeline: Integration compliance review ongoing; synergy potential ~¥10bn post-resolution.

Valuation

• Target: ¥450/share based on PBR = 1x (reflecting slowdown environment).
• Scenario: ¥1trn+ shareholder value achievable if engine cert resolved; 10x industry PER.
• Current Op: ¥57.5bn (FY3/25 est. ¥80bn target post-cert).

Risks & Catalyst

• Risks: Engine cert delay, demand trends, Fuso profitability, competitive pressures.
• Catalysts: Successful integration, Indonesia recovery, antitrust approval.

Rating & Outlook

• Short Term: Neutral on Hino shares due to dilution concerns.
• Long Term: 0.7% expected return; 20% potential price drag from dilution.
• Citi Take: Neutral; acknowledges value potential but tempered outlook.